Netanyahu’s coalition faces risk over Haredi military exemption
The prime minister is said to have spent recent days engaged in what has been described as a “containment battle,” attempting to preserve coalition unity for as long as possible ahead of the next elections, as stated by reports citing informed sources.
Israel’s parliamentary elections are officially set for late October 2026, unless political developments force an earlier vote.
According to those familiar with the matter, Netanyahu has been focused on reassuring Aryeh Deri, leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, in an effort to keep him aligned with the ruling bloc. At the same time, he is working to ease opposition from Moshe Gafni, head of the Degel HaTorah Party, regarding the proposed Haredi draft exemption law.
In parallel, Netanyahu is urging far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to advance preparations for the 2026 state budget, a critical step for the coalition’s survival.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have for years sought formal legislation that would excuse Haredi men from Israel’s mandatory military service. However, this demand has increasingly met resistance from other coalition members and from large segments of the public.
Under Israeli law, the government must secure parliamentary approval of the annual budget by the end of March or face the automatic trigger of early elections. Religious parties have tied their support for the budget to the passage of the draft exemption law, a condition that complicates budget approval, as their votes are essential.
Netanyahu’s coalition requires a minimum of 61 seats in the Knesset to stay in power. Threats by Haredi parties to block the budget unless their demands are met have highlighted the coalition’s vulnerability, with its continued existence described as “borrowed time,” according to the reports.
Political observers suggest that Israel has effectively entered an election campaign phase.
While Netanyahu reportedly prefers to delay elections until September, he has instructed aides to prepare for the possibility of early polls as soon as June should coalition tensions spiral out of control.
Analysts cited in the reports say the Haredi draft exemption issue has emerged as the primary fault line endangering the government. Netanyahu is concerned that approving any version of the law could erode his broader voter base, while ultra-Orthodox parties fear that early elections would weaken their leverage in future coalition negotiations.
According to assessments, regardless of whether the Knesset is dissolved in the coming months, Israel’s political scene is heading toward a heated electoral period marked by increasing difficulty in maintaining stable governance.
Tensions have also spilled onto the streets. On Sunday, confrontations erupted between Israeli police and Haredi demonstrators outside a military recruitment office in west Jerusalem, as protesters opposed compulsory service.
These clashes were part of wider demonstrations by ultra-Orthodox groups following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that required their enlistment and cut financial support to religious institutions whose students refuse to serve.
Haredi Jews make up roughly 13% of Israel’s population, estimated at about 10 million. They have long resisted military service, arguing that full-time Torah study is central to their way of life and that integration into secular frameworks threatens their religious identity.
For decades, Haredi men avoided enlistment at age 18 by repeatedly obtaining deferrals for religious studies until reaching the current exemption age of 26.
Public criticism of Netanyahu’s government has grown sharper over the exemption issue, particularly as Israel’s military faces personnel shortages amid multiple regional confrontations, including the war in Gaza that began in October 2023 and ongoing tensions involving Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and Yemen.
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